feature: Nicola’s Oscar Predictions 2015
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This year I’m doing this 2 days before the Oscars, a 100% improvement on last year. I have to be honest, they really crept up on me this year. As they do every year. This year, for some reason, I thought they were in March. Probably because they were in March last year. Anyway. They’re here, I’m here. Let’s get this done.
In a minute.
I like to let you know how well I do on predictions usually but there’s a bit of a problem with that because I change the number of categories I predict in each year. I’m doing 21 this year and I did last year too so I think I’m going to keep it at that. So here’s how I’ve done over the last few years…
2010 – 10 out of 14 (71%)
2011 – 8 out of 14 (57%)
2012 – 11 out of 18 (61%)
2013 – 13 out of 19 (68%)
2014 – 15 out of 21 (71%)
Need a ballot form to do your own predictions? Here’s a handy one for you right now. Here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Captain America: Winter Soldier
X-Men: Day of Future Past
Great field this year but a tough one to predict because, let’s face it, they’re pretty similar. Except for Interstellar, which might make it stand out from the field.
Predicted winner: Interstellar
BEST SOUND MIXING
Interstellar
Whiplash
Unbroken
American Sniper
Birdman
I feel like a film about music has to have great mixing right?
Predicted winner: Whiplash
BEST SOUND EDITING
Interstellar
Unbroken
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
American Sniper
Birdman
Could there be a consolation prize for The Hobbit. Probably not. I’m seeing chatter around American Sniper but I’m loathe to deem it worthy of any awards so…
Predicted winner: Birdman
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Glory” from Selma
Music and Lyric by John Stephens and Lonnie Lynn
“Lost Stars” from Begin Again
Music and Lyric by Gregg Alexander and Danielle Brisebois
“Everything is Awesome” from The LEGO Movie
Music and Lyric by Shawn Patterson
“I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell… I’ll Be Me
Music and Lyric by Glen Campbell and Julian Raymond
“Grateful” from Beyond The Lights
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
My most embarrassing incorrect prediction last year, or possibly ever. Look. I just didn’t think “Let It Go” was that good a song. This year… It has to be “Everything is Awesome” right? RIGHT? I mean, it’s already a travesty that it wasn’t nominated in Animated Feature…
… of course that could mean that the Academy hated it and hate the song but I still think it has to get this one. Even if it’s not technically even a great song…
… it’s catchy though right?
Predicted winner: “Everything is Awesome” from The LEGO Movie
BEST SCORE
Interstellar
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Score… it’s just not my thing so I’m going with the apparent favourite.
Predicted winner: The Theory of Everything
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Into The Woods
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
The Imitation Game
Mr. Turner
Wes Anderson IS Mr. Production Design. And seeing that he’s finally made a movie that other people love, as opposed to all the ones that I love but somehow still remain “niche” – I’m hopeful that, at last, one of his films will win an Oscar.
Predicted winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Into the Woods
Maleficent
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Inherent Vice
No big dress drama this year so I’ll go for fantasy.
Predicted winner: Into The Woods
BEST HAIR AND MAKE-UP
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Guardians of the Galaxy
Guardians was flashier and I’d like to win, but some people will just want to give The Grand Budapest Hotel many awards. Like they have been doing so far.
Predicted winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST FILM EDITING
Boyhood
Whiplash
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
The Grand Budapest Hotel
I think The Imitation Game is going to lose out on a lot of Oscars this year…
Predicted winner: Boyhood
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Birdman – Emmanuel Lubezki
Unbroken – Roger Deakins
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Robert Yeoman
Mr. Turner – Dick Pope
Ida – Ryszard Lenczewski and Lukasz Zal
Honestly, Ida has the best cinematography on this list. 100%. But Lubezki won last year and Birdman is fun so…
Predicted winner: Birdman
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ida – Poland
Leviathan
Tangerines
Wild Tales
Timbuktu
Haven’t seen many of these this year unfortunately. Ida was amazing but I heard great things about Leviathan, really great things. That said, I gave Ida the Best Director award at the Jameson Dublin International Film Festival last year so…
Predicted winner: Ida
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Citizenfour
Last Days in Vietname
Virunga
The Salt of the Earth
Finding Vivian Maier
Shamefully, I saw none of these… I did see a lot of ads for Citizenfour in my Firefox though, so I suppose that’s as good a reason as any to pick…
Predicted winner: Citizenfour
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Big Hero 6
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Boxtrolls
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Song of the Sea
As I mentioned earlier, it’s a travesty that The LEGO Movie isn’t nominated. Travesty. Though, I did LOVE Big Hero 6 (i.e. I loved Baymax) so there’s my choice.
Predicted winner: Big Hero 6
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Imitation Game
Whiplash
The Theory of Everything
American Sniper
Inherent Vice
I’m going to be super sad if American Sniper wins anything at all.
Predicted winner: The Imitation Game
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Boyhood
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Nightcrawler
Foxcatcher
I really liked Birdman. But I also really want Wes Anderson to win an Oscar. Hmm…
Predicted winner: Birdman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Emma Stone – Birdman
Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep – Into The Woods
Laura Dern – Wild
Emma Stone, Oscar nominated. Sheesh.
Predicted winner: Patricia Arquette
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
Edward Norton – Birdman
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
Robert Duvall – The Judge
If Whiplash is going to win anything, it’s going to be this.
Predicted winner: J.K. Simmons
BEST ACTRESS
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon – Wild
Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night
I can’t believe Julianne Moore hasn’t won an Oscar yet. Ridiculous. If she doesn’t win for this there’s something rotten in the state of Denmark. She’s an Oscar worthy actress playing an Oscar worthy role, which is more than you can say for the others in the field.
(Though, I have heard Marion Cotillard is excellent)
Predicted winner: Julianne Moore
BEST ACTOR
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
I love Michael Keaton and I loved Birdman but once I saw Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything it was game over. Ok, he might be basically doing an impression, but it’s an amazing impression. Plus, part of Michael Keaton’s work was done for him. Kind of the opposite of Eddie’s really.
Though, Eddie Redmayne – Oscar winner, over Michael Keaton? Gah.
Predicted winner: Eddie Redmayne
Best Director
Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
Predicted winner: Richard Linklater
BEST PICTURE
Birdman
Boyhood
Selma
The Theory of Everythig
The Imitation Game
The Grand Budapest Hotel
American Sniper
Whiplash
Will Best Director and Best Film be split this year? Maybe. They’ll have to be if I’m going to get the top 6 right…
If you’d asked me what was going to win on the day the nominations came out I would have definitely said Boyhood, but the tide has really turn against it over the course of the season. If Birdman gets this then maybe the Director nod goes to Iñárritu but equally maybe folks will use it for consolation this year.
Predicted winner: Birdman
That’s it so. Here’s to hoping I beat my best of 71% correct this year…
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