feature: nicola-t’s Oscar Awards predictions 2011

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If you’re looking for an Oscar prediction ballot form for 2013, I have one right over here – 2013 Oscar Predictions Ballot Form.

Last year I only managed to get this post out a week before the Oscars and it occurs to me now that I actually have no idea how many I got right. Give me a sec…

…Ok, I just checked and I got 10 out of 14. For 3 out of the 4 that I missed I had said that I thought the eventual winner would win but I picked another film. And I really thought Avatar should have won Best Picture. But anyway, the past is the past, time to look to the future!

Same as last year, I’ve done a handy Oscar prediction ballot form with 14 categories on it and I’ll be sticking to those categories for my predictions. If you want to do some yourself you can download it here. Also if you do decide to do some predictions it’d be great if you could e-mail them on to me. If I get enough responses I’ll post up the winner on the Facebook page and mention on the Twitter. The e-mail address is nicola at averagefilmreviews dot com.

For once I’ve actually seen almost all of the contenders this year. Only thing is that, aside from the acting categories, it’s actually a fairly wide race this year. There were some excellent movies in contention so I expect I won’t quite get 10 out of 14 this year…

Hmm… waffling again. On to the predictions.

Best Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network

Film editing, film editing… I’m gonna go with The Social Network on this one. My worry is that The King’s Speech is on such a high right now that it could pick up a few that it doesn’t quite deserve… This could be one of them.

Best Animated Feature Film
The Illusionist
How To Train Your Dragon
Toy Story 3

Some day, there’s gonna be a year where Pixar is competing and they don’t stroll home with this award. I doubt it will be this year. I put Toy Story 3 in at #2 for my top 10 films for 2010 and I genuinely think this is the best film they done since Toy Story 2. So, they should get this.

If they don’t then I’m gonna go down to HMV to buy the box set and watch them all in protest.

Edit: Whoops, I forgot about Cars, they didn’t win for that one. So they’re only 6 for 7 in the category. Thanks DeusExCinema for letting me know!

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
I am Love
The King’s Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Woo… and for once there isn’t a clear winner in this category. The period drama usually takes this one but there’s a lot of buzz around Alice in Wonderland and it has Colleen Atwood, 8 time nominee and 2 time winner in the category. On the other hand, The King’s Speech has Jenny Beavan… also an 8 time nominee but only 1 time winner. Hmm… I’m gonna say The King’s Speech on this one. Maybe there is a clear winner after all.

Best Original Song
Coming Home – Country Strong
I See The Light – Tangled
If I Rise – 127 Hours
We Belong Together – Toy Story 3

I’m still surprised Burlesque wasn’t nominated in this category. I don’t understand why they’ve gone down to 4 contenders. Burlesque totally should have had a song (or two) nominated. But anyway, whatever. I haven’t actually heard any of these songs so…. I’m going to have to get back to you on this.

UPDATE: Right I have listened to all the songs now and to be honest, none of them jump out at me. I think I’ll go with… I See The Light from Tangled.

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Cinematography is a category that is close to my heart, I think it makes a film and almost all these films deserve recognition here… The King’s Speech is probably the weakest here but the likelhood is that it’s all moot. This award is going to True GritRoger Deakins has done the cinematography on most (if not all, I’ll have to look it up) of the Coen Brothers films as well as many others and he’s been nominated 9 times in this category. This, I think, is his year.

To be honest though, if it were up to me, The Social Network would be going home with a wheelbarrow to carry all the awards they would win. Course it’s not up to me and I think here the Acadamy will choose to tread safer ground.

Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
Inception
The King’s Speech
True Grit

Art direction, art direction… I’d like to think The King’s Speech won’t sweep the Oscars? And I’m feeling it’s momentum slipping… but… hmm. I would give it to Inception. I think Inception will probably pick up the sound categories but I think it has a chance here. Certainly the people nominated for it seem to be more reknowned than the person for The King’s Speech…. ok. I’ll go out on a limb and say Inception. It’ll probably be Alice now… it was beautiful after all.

Best Original Screenplay
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech

The King’s Speech

Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

The Social Network

I don’t think there’s any doubt who’s going to win in the screenplay categories.

Best Director
Darren AronofskyBlack Swan
David O. RussellThe Fighter
Tom HooperThe King’s Speech
David FincherThe Social Network
Joel & Ethan CoenTrue Grit

I actually have no idea on this one… imagine me making a frowny face here. I guess after winning the Directors Guild Award, Hooper has to be fancied, even the favourite in some eyes. Personally I think the Academy would be mad to give it to him. I know the Oscars are, theoretically, awarded on the individual film and not on the body of work… but we all know that’s not true, and Hooper’s body of work is the weakest here.

Let’s look at the others. Coen’s have already won a few Oscars so I think they’re outsiders here. David O Russell and Aronofsky are first time nominees, though Aronofsky’s films have been nominated before. David Fincher is a second time nominee and his last film, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, did pick up 3 Oscars. His only problem is that he’s a bit popular. That’s how Christopher Nolan ended up on the sidelines again. That and the fact that his film isn’t as good as these five… but that’s just my opinion. ;-P

On paper I think Fincher should have it. I’m gonna call it for Fincher. But I’m probably wrong.

And by the way, I never realised till I had a look just now… how was Zodiac passed over for Oscar nominations? Ridiculous.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

This is probably the only acting category without a clear winner. Notwithstanding the fact that Hailee Steinfeld is clearly the lead in True Grit, there are some very noteworth performances here. I guess the gamble is on whether the fact that Steinfeld is really a lead will allow her to win this category or if it will rule her out. There’s no way I think she was actually good enough to compete in the lead actress category so I guess it was a good choice on the studios part.

My prediction though, having not seen Animal Kingdom, is Melissa Leo. She was fantastic in The Fighter. So that’s my choice.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

More very good performances here. I’m happy to see John Hawkes nominated for Winter’s Bone, absolutely deserved. He should have been nominated in every set of awards this season. After seeing Geoffery Rush in The King’s Speech I thought he had it in the bag. In fact, I have money on it. But… then I saw The Fighter. Hands down it should (and, I predict, will) go to Christian Bale, he was brilliant in it and I really do think the minute or so of the real Dicky Eklund clinched it for him. It was uncanny. Unfortunately the odds on Bale are crap so I guess I’ll just have to hope for Rush.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette BeningThe Kids Are All Right
Nicole KidmanRabbit Hole
Jennifer LawrenceWinter’s Bone
Natalie PortmanBlack Swan
Michelle WilliamsBlue Valentine

This year has been much better than last for female roles and there’s a few here I’d be happy to see walk away with it. Not Annette Bening though. I did not like The Kids Are All Right (review here). They do sometimes like to give younger actresses the award here but I think Natalie Portman has it this time.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Colin FirthThe King’s Speech
Jeff BridgesTrue Grit
James Franco127 Hours
Jesse EisenbergThe Social Network
Javier BardemBiutiful

After last years travesty, TRAVESTY I tells ya, when they overlooked Firth for A Single Man (review here) I’m not sure I even want to look at this category. And speaking of travesties, how the hell was James Franco nominated this year? I mean he was good… but he wasn’t better than Mark Wahlberg and he definitely wasn’t better than Ryan Gosling. Bah.

Happily though, I think Firth has it in the bag this year. It’s pretty much the shortest odds you can get on Oscar betting, 1/50 on Paddy Power last I looked.

The irony this year is that imo Jeff Bridges in True Grit was better than Firth in The King’s Speech. So, if the Academy had done the right thing last year, they could do the right thing by the performances this year too. Oh well. Congratulations Colin Firth, undoubtedly I’ll shed a tear listening to your acceptance speech.

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

And so it comes down to this. Fortunately for me I put money on The King’s Speech when The Social Network was the favourite and vice versa so… I should be a winner either way. Unless there is a massive upset, which seems very unlikely at this stage. I should point out, it’s very little money. I think I come out with like €10 or something. Still, it’s €10 I don’t have right now, so that’s good.

But who do I actually think will win? I honestly don’t know. I’d love The Social Network or Toy Story 3 to take it… but The King’s Speech is just so hot right now. If this were a competition I’d say The King’s Speech. But, like last year, I going to go with the one I want to win. It’s gotta be The Social Network.

Go on Academy, surprise me.


So that’s it done for another year. Let me know what you think yourselves. Is The King’s Speech unbeatable? Will The Social Network claw the ground back, or will something else get a few more?

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